The Settlers of Catan opening strategies

When playing the Settlers of Catan, a skilled player has a ‘plan’ from the outset of the game.  His setup dictates what this plan will be.  I have attempted to list all of the top plans, or strategies, that one can play.  I have given each a title and a short explanation:

Title (explanation)

‘Points’ refer to the probabilities represented on the terrain hexes.  So the 6s and 8s each have 5 points, the 3s and 11s have 2 points, etc.  A player could arrive at 5 points in a number of ways; he could have a single 6 of that resource, or he could have a 4 and an 11 (3+2), for example.

The following strategies measure the types and points values of all the hexes bordering the first two settlements: 

Wood and Clay Monopoly (5+ points of both and either a wood or clay port)

Wood Monopoly (5+ points of wood and a wood port)

Clay Monopoly (5+ points of clay and a clay port)

Wood, Wheat, Ore (5+ points of two, 4+ points of the other and a 3-port)

Super Sheep Monopoly (10+ points of sheep and a 3-port or 8+ and a sheep port)

Ore and Wheat Monopoly (5+ points of both and either an ore or wheat port)

Ore and Wheat (5+ points of both and a 3-port)

Wood and Clay (5+ points of both and a 3-port)

Any 3 (5+ points of all 3 and a 3-port)

Ore Monopoly (5+ points of ore and an ore port)

Wheat Monopoly (5+ points of wheat and a wheat port)

Sheep Monopoly (5+ points of sheep and a sheep port)

All Five (3+ points of every resource type)

You should strive to get at least one of these or something very similar.  I have tried to list them in rank order of their power.  Observe that all but the last rely on a port.

Note that putting two settlements on the same resource (and counting it twice) can be very dangerous and a strategy may lose position if it is precariously reliant on a single region that the player holds alone (making it a prime robber target).

Regarding the Wood monopoly:

I think that the wood monopoly is the strongest in the game for the following reasons:

Wood is essential for roads and settlements.  Building settlements can net you 5 points on its own and even if your strategy is to build four cities, two settlements will be needed as a foundation. 

Roads and settlements also allow you to dominate the island, cramping your opponents into undesirable areas early in the game. 

Having lots of roads also means you will probably get the longest road bonus (2 points). 

Wood is clearly important in the early game for expansion but, with the wood port, in the late game you can convert it into whatever else you may need.  Relying on a port is less risky in the late game than it is in the early game when resources are scarce.

Wood is superior to clay because it is more common; this is important because:  You will likely be able to get more of it and other players will be less likely to be jealous of your wood and inclined / able to block it with the robber.

Of course common sense must also be used, the wood monopoly is not useful if it is the only thing you have, total quantities of setup points must always be considered as well.

So why Wheat / Ore above Wood / Clay?:

If your port is weak (a 3-port instead of the Wood port) I think it is better to start the game trying to upgrade to 2 cities than building 2 roads and 2 settlements.  3-ports don’t really become useful until you are earning at least at a 4-settlement rate; you are simply required to save up too much for your earning power.  If you were to try to play a road-settlement strategy you may be forced to save and trade to get the sheep and wheat which would cost you critical time.  The city strategy allows you to breech the difficult early period without consistent outside assistance.